A Theology of Chance, or How to Hedge Your Bets When You Just Don't Know.

The portly professor Hocus climbs a pocus tree and begins to read a prepared statement...

"A Theology of Chance, or How to Hedge Your Bets When You Just Don't Know.

Theology, at its core, is a systematic study of the condition of, and the feelings involved with, being completely dependent on something over which you have no control. Fortuna was the Roman goddess of luck, or the personification of life's capriciousness.  They knew then what we know now: that luck can be good or bad, but it is out of our hands.

Opaque is a word to describe what is unknown or unseen. The world is highly opaque. In the past, we had fewer illusions about its opacity. Today, we suffer from delusions of understanding. We have faith in empirical data, statistical analysis and positive materialism. Not all of this faith is  unwarranted, but complex systems are still beyond our capacity to predict or control. The economy, for instance, is a classic case. The rise and fall of stock prices is studied by millions of exceedingly intelligent people, yet it fails to yield predictable results. A listing of similar opaque systems would include history, health, medicine, education, innovation, computer networks, the spread of epidemics, earthquakes, genetics, climate change, and social unrest. For most of these fields, we have rules of thumb and educated guesses.

It can be shown, however, that while we have a pretty good grasp on "normal" behavior of complex systems, we have no clue about unusual or extreme behaviors. Furthermore, as systems grow in size and complexity, the frequency of extreme events increases dramatically. Therefore our models breakdown.

As a result of our tremendous progress in science and technology, we are returning to a world that is highly opaque. Before, we did not know because we were ignorant; now, we can not know because complex systems are inherently unpredictable.

Many of the religious prohibitions and dogmas arose as conservative rules-of-thumb for maintaining social order in an opaque world.  Although many of the previously opaque matters have given way to science, new unknowns, that were not even known to be unknown, are now confronting us. The trouble is, as our successes increase, our arrogance increases and our delusions of control increase.

Ladies and gentlemen, it is time for a new theology: a theology of chance. How do we live in a world where the unexpected happens catastrophically while the expected is stifled and controlled by financial elites?

I propose that the better we understand our lack of control, the better we will be equipped to handle events when they explode. In addition, I propose that we should not be lulled into self-satisfaction by the word "modernity". Do not be fooled by the show: the world is more random and fragile than ever before. Today, as much as before, we need a systematic way of addressing how to live when we are completely at the mercy of chance.

Lady fortune makes the sun rise on the wicked as well as the saints.  Nothing we can do will guarantee her favor. We can merely hedge our bets and try to play it safe.

Father evolution has equipped us with conscience - a sense of "good", which is a conservative guide for behavior that will best win the favor of Fortuna in the long run. When in doubt, when lady fortune has blinded you to the future and all is dark, listen to your father. Use your conscience as a guiding force."

With this last pronouncement, the fragile branch supporting his prodigious stature gives way. With a loud crack, he falls headlong toward the ground.  As luck would have it, a mighty wind blows from the east, causing him to turn just before hitting the ground. He lands softly on his feet, unharmed, but with a stunned expression. After glancing skyward, he walks away in a daze muttering to himself.